July Small Business Outlook: Optimism Around Growth Continues

U.S. Chamber
July 16, 2024

Consumers are starting to hold back. Will that mean small business owners can relax their hiring plans? Post-election sales expectations continue to be high, but Main Street businesses are nervous about growth.

Summary: Monthly benchmark based on consumer spending using payment processing data. Consumers are pulling back, and sales are still up compared to a year ago.

• Month-over-month sales at small businesses in June dropped -2.9%, and transactions dropped -1.5%.
• Business transactions rose by 4.4% compared to last year.
• Spending increases in June came from insurance (rising premiums), amusement (summer foot traffic), and web-based content hosting (subscriptions).
• Spending decreases in June came from retail, accommodations, restaurants, ambulatory health care, and professional services.

U.S. Chamber
July 9, 2024

This month’s report from the NFIB found that small business optimism holds steady in the face of persistent inflation, and more employers on Main Street expect to raise prices to survive.

Summary: Inflation persists, and small businesses are raising prices to stay afloat.

• 12% of small business owners reported higher sales in the past three months (2 points better than in May), and the percentage expecting higher sales stayed the same at 13%.
• 21% of small business owners ranked inflation as their top concern (1 point lower than May and still the top cited problem).
• 19% of small business owners ranked labor quality as their top problem.
• 27% of small businesses raised their prices in May (2 points higher than May), and 26% are planning on raising prices in the next 3 months (2 points lower than May).
• 52% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months (down 6 points from May and the lowest reading since August 2022), and 23% are planning capital purchases in the next three months (no change from May).
• -7% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3 months (no change from May).
• 61% of small business owners are not interested in a loan (3 points higher than in May), and 28% report borrowing on a regular basis (3 points lower than in May).
• 4% of small business owners reported that financing was their top problem in May (down 2 points from May’s record percentage).
• 4% of small business owners believe the next three months are a good time to expand (unchanged from April and May and down four points from January).

U.S. Chamber of Commerce
July 5, 2024

Data collected from the Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index shows the first rise in small business employment since early 2023, despite decreases in the following sectors; leisure, hospitality, utilities, transport, and warehousing.

Summary: Data shows the first small business employment increase in 15 months.

• The sectors leading employment growth include agriculture, natural resources, and mining led the way for small business employment growth in June with a 0.58% month-over-month increase.
  • The construction, education, and health services sectors also experienced growth.
• The information sector took the hardest hit in decreased employment among small business sectors, decreasing by 0.51% in June.
  • Leisure, hospitality, utilities, transport, and warehousing also decreased employment in June.
• The Plains region led the country with a small business employment growth rate of 0.62% in June.
• The Southwest region did not experience small business employment growth; including the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Learn more about this data and explore the entire report, published July 5, 2024.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce
July 5, 2024

According to the latest report from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small businesses hiring plans remain robust, but a persistent worker shortage is fueling wage inflation.

Summary: The good news is that Main Street’s plans to hire are strong. The bad news is that there is still a worker shortage, which continues to drive wage inflation.

• 37% of small businesses reported job openings they could not fill in June (5 points lower than May but still far above the 49-year average of 23%).
• 60% of small businesses hired or tried to hire in June (no change from May).
  • Of those hiring, 85% of owners reported few or no qualified job applicants (also, no change from May).
• 15% of small business owners are planning to create new jobs in the next 3-months (no change from May, which was the highest level for 2024).
• 22% of small business owners plan on raising compensation in the next 3 months (4 points higher than May).
• 31% of small businesses have openings for skilled workers (6 points lower than in May), and 16% have openings for unskilled labor (2 points higher than in May).
• Over half the small businesses in construction (51%) have job openings they can’t fill.

Learn more about this data and explore the entire report, published July 4, 2024.