Small Business Outlook: Small business Owners Are Bullish

Summary: Small businesses are still in the early stages of fully integrating AI and Main Street is bullish on productivity and revenue gains from the technology.

• 76% of small business owners said they are currently using AI and 14% are fully integrating AI into their core operations.
• 93% of small business owners who use AI report a positive impact on their business.
• 84% of small business owners who use AI cite “increased efficiency and productivity” as the main benefit from using AI.
• 87% of small business owners who use AI report that the technology is augmenting the work of employees and not replacing them.
• 67% of small business owners who use AI expect increased revenue from its use.
• 50% of small business owners who use AI cite concerns with data privacy and security as their top challenge with use of the technology, followed by lack of technical expertise (49%), and difficulty choosing the right AI tools (48%).

Learn more about this data from the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices Survey, published on March 17, 2026.

Summary: Actual sales continue to tick up while sales expectations and capital expenditures tick downward.

• 15% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (no change since January).
• 1% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past 3-months (7 points better than January) and 8% of small business owners expect higher sales in the next 3-months (8 points lower than January).
• 24% of small businesses raised their prices in January (2 points lower than January) and 28% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (4 points lower than January).
• 54% of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last 6-months (6 points lower than January) and 18% are planning capital purchases in the next 6-months (no change from January).
• -5% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (2 points worse than January).
• Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 8.2% (0.9 points lower than January) and 25% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (no change from December and January).

Learn more about this data from the NFIB February Small Business Optimism Index, published on March 10, 2026.

Summary: Sustained growth in new business formation moves in tandem with sustained GDP growth.

• 1% increase in establishment births is associated with 0.18% higher GDP growth, 0.16% higher payroll job growth, and a 0.15% decline in unemployment.
• One new technology-based small business in a zip code is associated with 2.9 more local payroll jobs and has a multiplier effect of 0.3 new establishments.

Learn more about this data from GoDaddy Small Business Research Lab Report, published March 3, 2026.

Summary: Midwest continues to rank highest for small business job and wage growth.

• Paychex’s Small Business Jobs Index declined 0.53% since January and has declined 1.27% compared to February last year.
• Paychex’s Small Business Wage Data rose 0.04% since January and rose 2.78% compared to February last year.
• The Midwest ranks strongest for hourly earnings growth (3.08%) since August 2025.

Learn more about this data from Paychex February Small Business Employment Watch, published on March 3, 2026.