Crain’s Detroit Business
Sept. 20, 2023
David Eggert
Roughly a quarter of Michigan residents ages 18-29 see themselves living in another state in 10 years and nearly 1 in 10 are unsure, a new poll shows — concerning figures for leaders working to reverse the state’s low population growth.
Almost two-thirds of the respondents envision still living in Michigan in 10 years.
Those surveyed rank housing costs, crime rates and higher education/job training affordability as their most important factors if choosing between a job offer in Michigan and a comparable one elsewhere. They also prioritize social issues — protecting individual’s rights on issues of race, LGBTQ rights and abortion — and being close to family as important in deciding whether to accept a job in a state.
Of the 26.2% who said they see themselves living elsewhere, their open-ended answers for why they would move include seeing new places and scenery (22.9%), better or more opportunities (19.7%) and better weather (12.7%).
The Glengariff Group Inc. survey of 600 residents, released Wednesday, was conducted Aug. 14-19 and commissioned by Business Leaders for Michigan and the Detroit Regional Chamber. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The business groups sought to capture the priorities and perception of young adults as a state council, on which the organization’s leaders sit, tackles Michigan’s population problem.
Respondents were asked to rank 12 factors on a scale of 1 to 10 if they had to weigh a job here or elsewhere. The cost of housing/rent (8.6), low crime rates (8.3), the affordability and availability of higher education or job training (7.9) are of greatest importance, while living around people their own age (6.2), the weather (6.3) and good public transportation and walkable communities (6.6) are of least importance.
Asked to name one thing that could make the state a better place in which to live and work, respondents say fixing the roads and infrastructure (9.8%), increasing wages and benefits (6.8%) and offering more affordable housing (5.8%).
“When you look at what those between 18 and 20 (years old) are looking for, it’s not rocket science. It is the same things that every other Michigander is looking for,” Detroit Regional Chamber President and Chief Executive Officer Sandy K. Baruah said, pointing to “fundamentals” like good schools, solid infrastructure and safe communities.
He added that “you cannot attract people, you cannot retain people unless they have good opportunities.” He also noted that the polling shows that a state’s policies around social issues “matter greatly.”
When asked an open-ended question on Michigan’s biggest advantage, respondents said the Great Lakes/other fresh water (15.8%) and family and friends being here (15.8%).
The pollster, Richard Czuba, said there is no data indicating if young Michiganders are more open to leaving than young residents in other states are to moving away. But Baruah and Business Leaders for Michigan President and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Donofrio expressed concern.
“If you thought of ourselves as a business and a third of customers were thinking about jumping ship and we’re trying to grow our business, that puts you in a bad position,” Baruah said.
“The demographic profile of Michigan already is one of generation stagnation with population. Deaths are going to outpace births for a period of time. So if we don’t change the dynamic of keeping more of our residents here and making it a magnet for folks from other states, population counts won’t change very much,” Donofrio said.
Findings include:
- Respondents who vote Republican are less likely to leave than those who vote Democratic or call themselves an independent.
- 73.5% are optimistic about their economic future in Michigan; 18.8% are pessimistic. Fewer of those who plan to leave are optimistic about their economic future.
- Nearly 8 in 10 respondents, 79%, believe Michigan has the same or more opportunity than other locations. There are just four demographic groups in which more than 20% believe Michigan has less opportunity: those believing they will be living elsewhere in 10 years, leaning Republicans, strong Republicans and small-town residents.
- Of the 15% who say Michigan offers less opportunity, a third say it is due to a lack of jobs, economic diversity or fewer opportunities in their field.
Donofrio cautioned that people’s opinions do not necessarily reflect what they ultimately will do.
“Many states that are growing have this dichotomy that doesn’t reflect necessarily all of the things that they’re saying are important,” he said. “Certainly the cost of housing is much higher in some of the states that are growing in population. Other costs are higher. We have states that have social policies that do not reflect the data we’re seeing here in many cases that are growing in population as well. We have to take the caveat that causation is not proven out in polling. But this is a good finger in the air to help us understand what people under 30 are saying is important to them.”